At the climate summit held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on 24 September, President Xi Jinping presented China’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which were subsequently submitted to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 3 November.
Mitigation
Most importantly, the new target envisages a “7–10% reduction in emissions from peak levels by 2035 while striving to do better”, comprises all greenhouse gases for the first time and applies “economy-wide” to all sectors. According to its first NDC in 2021, carbon peak levels shall be achieved before 2030. The new goal represents China’s very first absolute target to cut emissions, meaning it is no longer tied to economic growth.
In addition, several other quantitative targets were specified such as a sixfold increase in wind and solar capacity to a total of 3,600 GW compared to 2020 levels by 2035, a share of over 30% of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption and the establishment of vehicles with alternative drive systems as “mainstream” in the new car market. The new NDC further commits to raising national forest stock volume to 25 billion cubic metres, compared with the present estimate of about 20 billion. Furthermore, the expansion of emissions trading to all emission-intensive sectors was announced. Currently, only the power sector is covered by the ETS, representing around 40% of China’s GHG emissions[1], although the future inclusion of other high-emissions sectors was already approved in August 2025.
China also defines quantifiable targets for non-CO₂ GHGs: The country plans to reduce the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by at least 30% from baseline levels by 2035 and to increase the reuse rate of animal and poultry manure to over 85% by 2035, contributing to lower methane emissions.
At the same time, the 2035 NDC outlines further qualitative sectoral targets for the industry, energy, mobility, and construction sectors:
- The industry sector shall undergo a comprehensive transition toward low-carbon energy consumption, circular resource use, and clean production processes. Furthermore, green products and services shall be promoted and efficiency improvements in key industries made.
- In the energy sector, the new NDC further stipulates a strict control of fossil fuel consumption; reduction of non-power coal use while improving the “clean and efficient use of fossil fuels” and upgradingnew coal-fired power plants with higher efficiency and cleaner decarbonization technologies. Next to the development and expansion of decentralized solar PV and wind power (including offshore wind) and large-scale development and utilization of marine energy, site-appropriate development of biomass and geothermal energy shall be promoted. Also, the development of nuclear power and the entire hydrogen energy value chain is envisioned.
- In the construction sector, China aims to place emphasis on the promotion of green planning and design concepts. It aims to raise standards for low-carbon buildings, to expand low-energy-consumption buildings, and to promote emission-reducing retrofits of existing buildings. China will also prioritise the integration of photovoltaic systems into buildings, and the wider adoption of heat pumps.
- China’s new NDC sets out further transport sector goals, including shifting bulk cargo and container freight to waterways and rail, developing high-quality multimodal transport systems, promoting clean transport in key industries and ports, and accelerating the adoption of cleaner energy in shipping and aviation.
Adaptation
Xi also set forth plans to create a “climate-adaptable society” by 2035, reiterating the goal of the “National Strategy for Adaptation (NAP) to Climate Change 2035”, which was released in 2022. The new NDC includes measures to strengthen monitoring, early warning, and risk assessment, increase the adaptability of natural ecosystems, strengthen the adaptability of the economy, society and key regions, and ensure resilience in key urban regions. Notably, no quantifiable targets are defined.
Analysis
Experts view China’s updated NDC and the new target for reducing emissions from peak-levels as an important step given the current geopolitical context and global headwinds for climate action. However, some stress that the pledge falls short of China’s potential pointing out the lack of sector-specific emission reduction targets, concrete plans for phasing out fossil fuels and the specification of a time for China’s emissions’ peak. The scientific community suggests that China would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% to keep the 2°C target within reach (-30% reduction to align with the 1.5°C target[2])
and comply with its obligations under the Paris Agreement. According to a recent analysis by UNEP[3], China
has the capability to reduce emissions by at least 28-37% by 2035. On the other hand, some observers note that China has consistently exceeded its renewable energy targets in the past, offering hope that emissions reductions may effectively be greater than pledged.
[1] IEA (2021). The Role of China’s ETS in Power Sector Decarbonisation. The Role of China’s ETS in Power Sector Decarbonisation – Analysis – IEA.
[2] Myllyvirta, L., Schaepe, B. & Qiu, C. (2024). China’s clean energy trends could cut emissions by 30% in 2035 if sustained. CREA. China’s clean energy trends could cut emissions by 30% in 2035 if sustained – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
[3] UNEP (2025). Emissions Gap Report 2025. EMISSIONS GAP REPORTS – UNEP-CCC.
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