On 9 July 2026, the State Council published the “Action Plan for Carbon Peaking during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (2026–2030)”. The plan translates the climate objectives of the 15th Five-Year Plan, adopted in March 2026, into sector-level measures for energy, industry, transport, buildings and carbon markets. It is the central instrument through which China intends to reach its target of peaking carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030, and prepare the ground for carbon neutrality before 2060.
Headline targets remain intensity-based
By 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product are to fall by 17% compared with 2025, and non-fossil sources are to supply 25% of energy consumption. Both targets are relative: they limit emissions per unit of economic output rather than total emissions. The plan does not set a binding cap on absolute emissions, and while it states that coal and oil consumption should peak during the plan period, it does not name a year for either.
Renewable expansion and power system flexibility
Installed wind and solar capacity is planned to reach at least 2,800 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, roughly double the level of 2025, alongside around 410 GW of conventional hydropower and 110 GW of operating nuclear capacity.
A detailed set of targets addresses the system’s ability to absorb this output: more than 80 GW of additional west-to-east transmission capacity, around 160 GW of pumped hydro storage, 300 GW of new-type storage such as batteries, virtual power plants able to adjust 50 GW of load, and demand response covering at least 5% of peak demand. The plan also expands “direct green power supply”, an arrangement under which industrial consumers are connected directly to nearby wind and solar plants instead of purchasing electricity through the grid.
Coal-fired power is assigned a changed role: rather than serving as the main source of supply, it is to back up and balance the variable output of renewables. Small coal-fired boilers are to be phased out, and coal-based chemical production is to be coupled with renewable electricity and green hydrogen. The plan does not, however, set a closure schedule for existing coal plants, and coal explicitly retains a role in securing energy supply.
Sector-specific targets for industry, transport and buildings
Industrial enterprises above the designated size are required to reduce CO2 emissions per unit of value added by more than 17%, and energy consumption per unit of value added by more than 10% during the plan period. China also plans to build around 100 national-level “zero-carbon industrial parks” and 500 “zero-carbon factories”: industrial sites designed to cover most of their energy demand with renewable electricity generated on site or contracted nearby. In transport, new energy vehicles are set to account for 30% of the national vehicle fleet and 25% of commercial vehicles by 2030. Buildings need to cut direct carbon emissions per unit of floor area by 3%.
Carbon accounting, markets and finance are set to expand
The plan calls for a national carbon emissions data management system, annual national greenhouse gas inventories, databases for emission factors and product carbon footprints, and a unified product carbon labelling scheme. The national emissions trading system is to expand into petrochemicals and chemicals, introduce absolute allowance caps in sectors with stable emissions, and gradually combine free allocation with paid allowances. A national low-carbon transition fund is to be established, and financial regulators are to expand the availability of green and transition finance products.
Provinces must now adopt their own plans
Each province is required to formulate its own carbon peaking action plan for the period. Implementation will be tracked under the “Measures on Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” of April 2026, which introduced annual assessments of provincial governments against carbon-related control indicators. The provincial plans, due over the coming months, will show how the national targets are distributed across regions with very different industrial and energy structures.
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