Project: Sino German Cooperation on Climate Change - NDC Implementation

As the impacts of climate change are now being experienced across the globe, so the scale of the adaptation challenge is becoming
increasingly apparent. Over the last decade, almost every nation has begun the process of adaptation planning in some form. At a national
level, many countries now have National Adaptation Strategies or National Adaptation Plans. These often inform, and are informed by,
sub-national adaptation planning processes which are usually tailored to the governance structure of the country and the different tiers
of government which may exist. The number of sectoral adaptation plans has also grown considerably, as countries better understand the
distinct challenges of adapting to climate change.
The growing demand for adaptation planning has generated a burgeoning academic literature, but also an exponential growth in practical
guidance, tools and resources aimed at those tasked with developing adaptation plans. While climate adaptation is inherently context
specific, it is clear that a number of key principles for good adaptation planning can be identified which can be of considerable value
to those beginning this process. More specifically, the framing of adaptation as a cycle is extremely valuable for those trying to interpret
national level approaches in a sub-national context. This approach emphasises adaptation planning as a continual process, rather than an
end goal, which is especially important as we continue to experience worsening climate change impacts, including multiple interacting
impacts in increasingly dynamic social and economic contexts.
The purpose of this briefing note is to consider and compare the more practical literature on adaptation in order to reflect on how the
process of adaptation planning has been conceptualised, and to identify lessons from this continually evolving field which can be used as
China begins to strengthen adaptation at the sub-national level. We focus particularly on experiences from Europe and Germany, however
it should be noted that many of the key concepts are consistently used globally, and have proven to be useful in a multitude of contexts.

Phasing out fossil fuels in Inner Mongolia’s heating sector is a requirement to meet the central government’s climate objectives. Achieving
the Chinese national goals of peaking emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 (“30/60 goals”) will require the energy systems of
all provinces and sectors to transform away from fossil fuels to the wide penetration of renewables. Such transformation will require careful
and timely planning to allow for the development and commercialisation of appropriate technology and to avoid locking in fossil fuel
reliant technologies and infrastructure. As one of the coldest Chinese provinces and endowed with rich coal resources, the heating sector
of Inner Mongolia is energy intensive and a large CO2 emitter, Following population growth, urbanisation and increasing living standards,
residential heat demand in Inner Mongolia is growing more rapidly compared to any other Chinese province. Yet, Inner Mongolia is
among the provinces with the highest renewables potential. Using that potential with already available and emerging heating technologies
could be an opportunity for the province to avoid carbon lock-in of long-life fossil fuel-based heating infrastructure while delivering
additional sustainable development benefits.

Most major emitting countries around the world have ratified the Paris Agreement and communicated emissions reduction targets in
their nationally determined contributions (NDC). While the international climate policy discourse mainly relates to national level targets,
implementation of climate action largely takes place at the sectoral and subnational levels. Countries take different approaches to translate
national targets to the sectoral and/or subnational level to ensure climate policy implementation.
Different methods and principles can be applied when disaggregating national targets to ensure fairness and effectiveness. Approaches to
determine shares of emission targets or carbon budgets can be based on criteria such as economic capacity (GDP), population, or historic
responsibility or be derived from greenhouse gas emissions pathways. In China, the national government sets overarching emissions
reductions targets for the country and distributes it to its 31 provinces. In contrast, in Germany the national target is distributed to the
sector level, with monitoring, compliance and flexibility mechanism in place to ensure targets are met, even in extraordinary, unforeseen
circumstances such as the current energy crisis.
The objective of this policy brief is to outline how Germany distributes its national target to the sector level, including the monitoring,
compliance and flexibility mechanisms that underpin the process. The overarching aim is to derive key lessons to inform the Chinese
climate policy governance approach as insights from Germany’s target setting system are considered to be useful for both the national
and subnational governments in China. Provincial governments in particular could benefit from Germany’s experience with distributing
economy-wide targets to its sectors.