In July, the State Grid Energy Research Institute published its China Electricity Supply and Demand Report 2020. While the first quarter saw a sharp decline in consumption due to COVID-19, a rise in consumption by 1.5-3.5 percent compared to 2019 is expected by the end of 2020. It expects an installed wind capacity of 250 GW and a PV capacity of 240 GW by the end of the year. Utilization hours of coal power plants are estimated to fall by 80 hours to 4210 hours, likely exacerbating existing profitability woes of coal power plants and extending them to even more plants. However, despite this generally negative economic outlook for coal power and despite existing overcapacities, the report still calls for building capacity strongly by 2025. The reason is an assumed increase in power demand. Three provinces are named as being at risk of a supply shortage: Hunan, Henan, and Jiangxi. These provinces are adjacent to regions with the same grid and considerable surplus capacities that could be used to balance out these shortages. This demonstrates the ongoing challenge of creating an integrated regional electricity market that traverses provincial borders. Moreover, the resulting carbon dioxide emissions of these planning decisions are not accounted for – so far, they are not playing a role in making long-term investment plans.
