On 23 October 2025, the Communist Party of China (CPC) adopted its “Recommendations on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development”. The State Council is now developing the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for the years 2026-2030, based on the CPC recommendations. During the two sessions in March 2026, the draft outline of the 15th FYP will be reviewed, voted on and potentially adopted before being officially released.
The recommendations define China’s development priorities for the next five years, emphasising growth, technological self-reliance, innovation capacity, and the modernisation of industry. Green and low-carbon transition forms a key pillar of the CPC recommendations: accelerating the shift to a “new energy system”, limiting carbon emissions, and promoting green production and consumption.
Energy priorities: development of the “new energy system”¹
In alignment with national strategic objectives, China aims to continue to develop a “new energy system”. The key focus areas include scaling up renewable energy supply, ensuring the safe and orderly substitution of fossil fuels, and enhancing the flexibility and resilience of the national power system.
Key action areas include:
- Energy mix development, with an increase in the share of renewables, including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy, and coordinated development between local consumption and long-distance transmission for clean energy utilisation.
- Targeted fossil fuel use, focusing on the upgrading and retrofitting of coal-fired power plants and coal substitution in scattered consumption areas.
- Power system flexibility and resilience, through improved integration of renewable energy sources within the national power grid, development of pumped storage and energy storage projects, and smart grid and microgrid construction for improved system stability.
- End-use electrification, with increased electrification levels in industrial, transport, and residential sectors and green and low-carbon energy consumption.
- Market mechanism development, with progress toward establishing market-based and pricing mechanisms aligned with the development of the “new energy system”.
Climate priorities: reducing carbon emissions
Efforts focus on strengthening carbon governance, improving energy efficiency, enhancing carbon market mechanisms, and building resilience against climate risks.
Key action areas:
- Carbon dual control (碳双控): Explicit mention of the shift from reducing total energy consumption to reducing total carbon emissions. Following the State Council’s Action Plan on Carbon Dual Control (July 2024), for the first time, “carbon dual control” is elevated to a central principle in a top-level national planning document, guiding decarbonisation under the 15th FYP. The policy also highlights peaking coal and oil consumption and supports accelerating renewable energy development.
- Energy efficiency: inclusion of ongoing energy-saving and emission-reduction retrofitting in key sectors.
- Carbon accounting and management frameworks: upgrade of the national carbon emissions quantifying and accounting system and introduction of carbon assessment and management at multiple levels, including local government carbon performance evaluation, sectoral carbon control, enterprise-level carbon management, project-based carbon assessment, and product carbon footprint tracking.
- Carbon market development: expansion of the national emissions trading system (ETS) to cover more sectors beyond power generation, and accelerating the establishment of the national voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Market (CCER);
- Industrial parks: construction of zero-carbon factories and industrial parks while accelerating the development of decentralised renewable energy.
- Standards and international alignment: establishment and refinement of a unified low-carbon standards system which shall align with international standard frameworks.
- Climate adaptation and risk management: strengthening of the institutional framework for climate adaptation and increase of national and local capacities to address climate change impacts, particularly extreme weather events.
Green production and lifestyles: transformation across sectors
The recommendations also include an intended shift towards green production and green lifestyles. They focus on key sectors such as industry, urban and rural development, transport, and energy.
Key action areas:
- eco-environmental zoning and integration with spatial planning, as well as coordinated and low-carbon industrial layouts
- resource management and circular economy mechanisms, with a focus on waste classification and recycling
- introduction of pilot zones and demonstration areas for green development initiatives
- adjustments to fiscal, financial, investment, pricing, technological and environmental policies that support green and low-carbon growth
- establishment of incentive mechanisms for green consumption.
Conclusion
In essence, the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan point to three main priorities: further expanding renewable energy and modernising the power system to reduce reliance on fossil fuels; shifting policy focus from controlling energy use to directly controlling carbon emissions, including plans to peak coal and oil consumption and expand carbon markets; and integrating climate and low-carbon goals across industry, finance and consumer policies, making green development a central pillar of China’s long-term economic strategy.
1 China’s new energy system, often called “new-type energy system”, is a framework for energy production, distribution, and consumption that prioritises clean sources, digital intelligence, and security to replace traditional fossil fuel-dependent structures.
