With the next cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) approaching in early 2025, pressure is building up to address non-CO2 emissions, which currently contribute about 25% of global GHG emissions. Although typically given less attention than CO2, these emissions—primarily methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases—have high global warming potentials and significantly impact the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Agriculture, energy, and industrial processes are key non-CO2 emitting sectors, with countries such as China, the USA, and India among the largest contributors. Currently, few NDCs set quantitative targets for these gases, and while international initiatives like the Global Methane Pledge and the Kigali Amendment are increasing ambition, specific goals remain limited among major emitters.
Ahead of COP29, NewClimate Institute and GIZ have released this policy brief containing a “Global overview on inclusion of non-CO2 emissions in NDCs”. The report analyzes the role of non-CO2 emissions in global climate policy, outlining if and how these are currently addressed in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and presents options for updating NDCs to raise ambitions and expand the coverage of non-CO2-greenhouse gases (GHG). In the light of China potentially expanding its NDC to include all GHGs, the policy brief is targeted at Chinese policymakers with the aim to inform their ongoing NDC updating processes, but also serve as a useful overview for the interested global climate community.
China’s current NDC covers only CO2, although non-CO2 gases comprise 18% of its national GHG emissions. However, China has signaled potential willingness to include non-CO2 emissions in its next NDC, aligning with new policies like its 2023 Methane Emissions Control Action Plan and partnerships such as the “U.S.-China Sunnylands Statement.” The upcoming NDC updates offer an opportunity for China and other nations to enhance global climate action by raising the level of ambition and detail of their climate targets with respect to non-CO2 emissions, as well as providing more clarity on their pathways towards carbon neutrality by increasing transparency in emissions reduction efforts. Whether or not China expands its NDC to include all GHGs will be an important signal for other countries in determining the level of ambition of their climate targets and action.
As countries are embarking on national processes to reformulate their NDCs, this policy brief offers an in-depth analysis on the role of non-CO2 emissions in the context of NDC ambition updates. It provides an overview of the role of non-CO2 emissions for national and global climate goals and how these emissions have been covered so far in countries’ current and (where already available) updated NDCs. The briefing paper also discusses different options for updating NDCs by including non-CO2 emissions.
