With the next cycle of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) approaching in early 2025, pressure is building up to address non-CO2 emissions, which currently contribute about 25% of global GHG emissions. Although typically given less attention than CO2, these emissions—primarily methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases—have high global warming potentials and significantly impact the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Agriculture, energy, and industrial processes are key non-CO2 emitting sectors, with countries such as China, the USA, and India among the largest contributors. Currently, few NDCs set quantitative targets for these gases, and while international initiatives like the Global Methane Pledge and the Kigali Amendment are increasing ambition, specific goals remain limited among major emitters.
Ahead of COP29, NewClimate Institute and GIZ have released a policy brief containing a “Global overview on inclusion of non-CO2 emissions in NDCs”. The report analyzes the role of non-CO2 emissions in global climate policy, outlining if and how these are currently addressed in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and presents options for updating NDCs to raise ambitions and expand the coverage of non-CO2-greenhouse gases (GHG). In the light of China potentially expanding its NDC to include all GHGs, the policy brief is targeted at Chinese policymakers with the aim to inform their ongoing NDC updating processes, but also serve as a useful overview for the interested global climate community.
China’s current NDC covers only CO2, although non-CO2 gases comprise 18% of its national GHG emissions. However, China has signaled potential willingness to include non-CO2 emissions in its next NDC, aligning with new policies like its 2023 Methane Emissions Control Action Plan and partnerships such as the “U.S.-China Sunnylands Statement.” The upcoming NDC updates offer an opportunity for China and other nations to enhance global climate action by raising the level of ambition and detail of their climate targets with respect to non-CO2 emissions, as well as providing more clarity on their pathways towards carbon neutrality by increasing transparency in emissions reduction efforts. Whether or not China expands its NDC to include all GHGs will be an important signal for other countries in determining the level of ambition of their climate targets and action.
Globally, the updated NDCs need to much more ambitious national targets in comparison to NDCs communicated in earlier rounds to align with the target of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.In this, they should reflect the findings of the Global Stocktake (GST) which concluded in 2023 and revealed a significant global ambition gap for the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals.
As countries are embarking on national processes to reformulate their NDCs, this policy brief offers an in-depth analysis on the role of non-CO2 emissions in the context of NDC ambition updates. It provides an overview of the role of non-CO2 emissions for national and global climate goals and how these emissions have been covered so far in countries’ current and (where already available) updated NDCs. The briefing paper also discusses different options for updating NDCs by including non-CO2 emissions.
This report is an output of the Sino-German Cooperation on Climate Change – NDC Implementation project, which is commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) as part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH together with the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) of China, NewClimate Institute for Climate Policy and Global Sustainability (NCI) gGmbH, and Climate Analytics (CA) gGmbH. On the Chinese side, the partner ministry of the project is the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE). Since 2022, the IKI is implemented by BMWK in close cooperation with the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV) and the Federal Foreign Office (AA).
Download the report here: NewClimate Institute and GIZ report on the role of non-CO2 emissions in NDCs – Sino-German Cooperation on Climate Change.
