On January 3, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China, in collaboration with other relevant departments, released The People’s Republic of China First Biennial Transparency Report on Climate Change. This report comprehensively presents the latest progress in key areas such as greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), mitigation and adaptation policies, financial and technological support, and capacity-building. The report not only marks a significant step in China’s commitment to transparency under the Paris Agreement but also demonstrates China’s efforts in addressing climate change, providing crucial Chinese perspectives and data to support global climate action.
National GHG Inventory: Detailed Emission Data Reveals the Direction for Emission Reduction
For the first time at the national level, the report systematically discloses China’s GHG emissions data for 2020-2021, covering five major sectors: energy, IPPU, agriculture, land use, LULUCF, and waste. According to the report, in 2021, the total GHG emissions in China amounted to 14.314 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (without LULUCF), an increase of 4.0% compared to 2020. However, at the same time, carbon sink capacity also increased. In 2020, China’s net GHG removals from LULUCF was 1.303 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, rising to 1.315 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2021.
The report not only discloses total emissions but also details the emission source structure: in 2021, emissions from the energy sector accounted for 76.9%, IPPU accounted for 14.9%, agriculture accounted for 6.5%, and waste accounted for 1.7%. The application of sector breakdowns and higher-tier methods is due to the gradual establishment in China of a “government-led, research-supported, third-party-verified” inventory compilation mechanism. By fully adopting the IPCC 2006 guidelines and the 2019 revised version, China’s emission data system has aligned with international standards, with uncertainty controlled within ±7.6%, reaching the average level of developed countries. Through the analysis of these data, the report clearly identifies key areas for future emission reductions and provides data support for policy formulation.
Figure 1 China’s GHG emissions by category (without LULUCF)
Progress in NDCs: Clear Emission Reduction Targets and Continued Policy Actions
According to the report, China has set clear emission reduction targets in its response to climate change. By 2030, China aims to peak carbon emissions and further promote the green, low-carbon transformation of its economy. The report outlines specific policies to implement these emission reduction targets, including optimizing the energy structure, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of industries, green and low-carbon development in the building sector, constructing a green and low-carbon transportation system, and establishing a nationwide carbon market.
The 2030 NDC targets set by China include:
- CO2 emissions will enter a relatively stable platform or begin to decline after reaching the peak.
- CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by more than 65% compared to 2005.
- The proportion of non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption will reach around 25%.
- Forest stock volume will increase by 6 billion cubic meters compared to 2005.
- The total installed capacity of wind and solar power will exceed 1,200 GW.
As of 2021, China has made the following progress:
| Indicator | Current Progress | 2030 Target |
| CO2 Emissions | 11.62 billion tons | Peaking |
| Carbon Intensity | -50.9% (compared to 2005) | ≥ -65% (compared to 2005) |
| Non-Fossil Energy Share | 17.9% (as of 2023) | ≥ 25% |
| Forest Stock Volume | +6.493 billion cubic meters (compared to 2005) | ≥ +6 billion cubic meters (compared to 2005) |
| Wind and Solar Installed Capacity | 1280 GW (as of October 2024) | ≥ 1,200 GW |
The transparency report showcases the phased results of China’s implementation of its NDC targets. By 2021, the carbon intensity per unit of GDP had decreased by 50.9%; the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption reached 17.9%, although this progress has been relatively slow, and accelerating the phase-out of coal-fired power faces challenges in the short term; the forest stock volume had increased by 6.493 billion cubic meters compared to 2005, achieving the NDC target ahead of schedule; the installed capacity of wind and solar power surpassed 1280 GW in 2024, also achieving the NDC target ahead of schedule, although grid integration and storage capacity still face challenges.
To achieve the NDC targets, China has established a “1+N” policy framework, with the “Opinions on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” as the lead, and developed a supporting policy framework covering ten major sectors, including energy, industry, construction, and transportation. These measures focus on accelerating renewable energy deployment, promoting green industrial development, and improving energy efficiency. Furthermore, technological innovation and the development of a green financial system are crucial strategies for ensuring the successful achievement of these targets. Through the gradual implementation of local carbon peaking targets, China is accelerating the low-carbon economic transformation.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Significant Impacts and Response Actions
China faces significant challenges from climate change, including the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and typhoons, which particularly affect agriculture, ecosystems, and water resources. The Huang-Huai-Hai region, the northwest, and the southern areas of China are especially affected. For example, the Yellow River basin and the northwest frequently experience droughts, while the southern and northeastern regions face threats from heavy rainfall and floods.
In response to the systemic risks brought about by frequent extreme weather events, China has taken a series of proactive actions, particularly in areas such as agricultural and water infrastructure construction and ecosystem protection. China has also established a multi-departmental coordination mechanism and is conducting adaptation-oriented urban construction projects in multiple provinces and cities to enhance the climate resilience of infrastructure in response to extreme weather events.
Finance, Technology and Capacity Building Needs and Support Received
The report elaborates on China’s needs and challenges in addressing climate change from three perspectives: finance, technology, and capacity building.
In terms of financial support, considering both mitigation and adaptation actions, China’s total financial needs from 2024 to 2030 are estimated at approximately RMB 25.2 trillion. From 2020 to 2022, China accumulated $2.62 billion in international financial support through multilateral and bilateral channels. However, challenges remain, as developed countries have a low willingness to provide financial support to China, and the climate financing concepts advocated by developed countries are not conducive to protecting the rights .
Regarding technological support, China has received some support for new technology development and transfer projects. However, due to increasing international blockades, the substantial transfer of key technologies still faces barriers, and there is a pressing need for multilateral mechanisms to provide fair and accessible technological support.
In terms of capacity-building, with the support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), China has undertaken several capacity-building projects, but there is still a lack of comprehensive evaluation methods for the effectiveness of these projects, as well as mechanisms for information sharing and matching.
Overall, while China is laying the foundation for systematic climate action through financial support and capacity-building, it faces challenges from the tightening international environment and rising technological barriers. Domestic mechanisms need further upgrading to address the demands for higher-quality governance in the future.
In conclusion, this first biennial transparency report is not only a summary of past climate change actions but also a blueprint for future climate action. Through transparent data disclosure and tangible policy actions, China has demonstrated a clear commitment to addressing climate change.
Original policy：https://unfccc.int/documents/645296
